The Japanese Cabinet Office released a serial of data on August 16th, indicating that the real GDP of Japan for the second quarter this year was 1.288 trillion dollars, with a chain growth rate of 0.1% and an annual growth rate of 0.4%, smaller than expectation. Before that, China had released the economic data for the first half of this year, claiming that the GDP for the second quarter this year was 1.339 trillion dollars, which means Japanese economy has fallen behind.
In terms of seasonal GDP, China had exceeded Japan in the fourth quarter of last year. But as the fourth quarter was the end of the year and Chinese economy was overheated with some seasonal factors, the annual GDP of 2009 was less than 5 trillions dollars, while Japan’s GDP exceeded 5 trillions narrowly. But some experts think that Chinese economy has cooled down after macroeconomic adjustment and that from the data of the second quarter released recently, China’s GDP is doomed to outrun Japan’s. But even though Chinese economy surpasses Japanese economy and becomes the second largest economic entity, China still falls far behind America, which has an annual GDP of around 15 trillion dollars, three times Chinese GDP. Even if China could grow at the recent speed, it still needs some 10 years before it catches America. But whether Chinese economic growth can maintain such a speed is still unknown.
As a developing country, China’s overtaking Japan as the second largest economic entity has a significant meaning. Bruce Kasman, chief economist of Morgan Chase Bank said, “It is a landmark for the global economy. The most impressive thing is that China, in a time when most countries around the world feel tough to move on, can still maintain a rapid growth rate.” It is striking that China can growth at a staggering speed. About 10 years ago, China was only the seventh economic entity in the world, while ranking the third in 2007 and exceeding Japan as the second this year.
Of course, the ranking will differ according to different criteria. In denomination of US dollars, Chinese economy will exceed Japanese this year, while in terms of purchasing power, China has long surpassed Japan as the second economic entity. Whereas, in terms of per capita GDP, China only accounts for one tenth of Japan. Now Chinese population is ten times Japanese and its total GDP only surpasses Japanese narrowly. |
